Pakistan at crossroads after 'historic' elections

Former Pakistani PM Sharif has emerged victorious in parliamentary elections but the biggest winners in these historic elections are the Pakistani people who came out to vote despite the fear of the Taliban. The surprise loss of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the expected rise of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to the position of third largest party are the clear trends of change in Pakistani politics. Despite threats of violence from the militants and their ability to strike at will prior to the elections, people decided to come out in large numbers to cast their votes. Continuation of the democratic process in Pakistan by means of the completion of the full term in office of one government and the successful polling to elect a new government for the first time in the history of Pakistan is really a great achievement for a country where military has ruled for more than thirty years collectively and the interim governments have a tendency to stick to power. The caretaker government in Pakistan and the civil and military establishments deserve credit for making this historical achievement happen. A bumpy road ahead This is but the beginning of a very difficult journey ahead. Unlike various poll predictions, Pakistan did not get a split mandate. Sharif's PML-N party has a majority now to form a government on its own. The party’s has been swept to power in the biggest and arguably the most powerful Punjab province, which has given Sharif the mandate to rule Pakistan again. The expectation that the former ruling PPP’s loss might benefit Khan's PTI didn’t come true, proving the fact that traditional politics still prevails in the Punjab, which has been traditionally led by feudals. But on the whole, things look quite divided in three smaller provinces. The parties get a split provincial mandate. While the Punjab voted for the PML-N, Sindh remained loyal to President Asif Ali Zardari's PPP. The biggest surprise, however, is the overwhelming performance of the PTI which has defeated both secular Awami National Party (ANP) and the PPP in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering Afghanistan. Khan's PTI snatched the Hazara area, which is considered the PML-N stronghold. In Baluchistan, Sharif’s Muslim League might be heading for a coalition with the nationalists. Though it is too early to predict anything about Balochistan, this can still be the political setup in the highly volatile province facing a protracted separatist movement. No bed of roses Although each winner is celebrating at the moment, the honeymoon period might not last long. In fact, celebrations already have a dampened look keeping in view the daunting tasks ahead. Sharif has to deliver really quickly on both the national and international front. He is seen as a practical politician in the West and his personal statements about readiness to work with the US government might be of some consolation, but it is easier said than done. His tacit but known soft attitude towards the Islamist militant organizations - be it the Taliban or Lashkar-e-Jhangvi - is part of the victory package. He can’t afford to lose his support among these right-wing sections of the Punjab. Also, his focus on the Punjabi politics doesn’t make him a good politician nationally and internationally. On the other hand, he has to act really fast on his promises to end the energy crisis. His election campaign was mainly focussed on domestic issues and he has promised to change the fortunes of the country overnight. Now when the elections are over, people would like to see the change. His immediate performance will be gauged on solving the everyday problems of Pakistanis. In Balochistan, it is important for Sharif to enter a coalition to dismiss the perception that he is a Punjabi politician. Having government in two provinces will really help him a lot. But there are also things are not as simple as they look. The Baloch nationalists would like to get control of things in the province. This will have immediate affects on the non-Baloch population in the strife-torn province. Keeping a balance in this regard won’t be an easy task either. Trade and business In the field of trade and business, Sharif is surely a good choice. His business interests in India could be beneficial in reducing tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries. This, in turn, will have an affect on both the countries’ Afghanistan policies and we can expect some softening of stance from both sides. At the same time, there might be some major changes in Pakistan’s energy relations with Iran. President Zardari went into collaboration with Iran on the gas pipeline project, which has been openly opposed by the US. But now it will be interesting to see whether the Saudi-backed Sunni leader Sharif will keep the deal. Talks with the Taliban The most crucial outcome of the elections is Imran Khan’s PTI’s landslide victory in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khan’s "tsunami" has really decimated all its rivals in the province. The veteran ANP politician Ghulam Ahmad Bilour conceded defeat honourably by saying, “People were not happy with our performance. We couldn’t deliver and the voters have decided in the favor of the change. The change is there and I wish it (the PTI) well” Pakistani Pashtuns have voted for change, for peace. Khan’s promise for peace is based on the premise of dialogue with the Taliban and an independent foreign policy not dictated by the US. This brings him closer to the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami party, the other winner in the volatile province. The PTI can easily go into an alliance with Jamaat to form a government in the strategically important region bordering Afghanistan at a time when the NATO forces are withdrawing from Kabul. The West would have probably preferred a moderate government in the province, the hard-line government with Khan's charismatic leadership can be irritating. Khan, having lost in the center, is far from the foreign policy debate, but his promise to engage in a dialogue with the Taliban is something his supporters would like to see happening very soon. But the chances of conducting successful talks with the Taliban are really slim. Khan must keep in mind that he is not the first one to come up with the idea of talks. The ANP, the former ruling party in the province, engaged in talks with the Taliban at the very beginning of their term in 2008. Hopes were high but the results were disastrous. Experience shows that it is impossible to fulfil the wishes of the militants. The Taliban don’t have a centralized decision making structure, let alone the mechanism to implement any possible deals. The whole process is too complex and fraught with dangers, and at the end of the day Khan might end up losing his support. He might have won the elections, but it would still be wise to listen to the ANP's experiences and draw lessons from them. Defeat of the liberal thought Last but not least, there is the question of minorities and human rights in Pakistan. With the PPP’s defeat, Pakistan now has a predominantly wahhabi leadership which is strongly supporting a compromise with the Taliban. The minority Shiites were targeted with impunity during the tenure of the last government, and now there are fears that this might increase manifold if the governments in Islamabad and provinces don’t take necessary steps to nip the problem in the bud. Pakistan, as always, remains at the crossroads. The entire world is looking at Pakistan with fear and hope; probably with more fear than hope. It is high time that the new Pakistani leadership ensures the world that there is nothing to fear. There is still hope and the new players that have emerged in Pakistani politics along with the old ones are serious to make their own country and the world a safer place to live. Author: Altaf Khan Editor: Shamil Shams